Navigating the Future: De-Industrialization, Digital Shifts, and the Quest for Coherence

1. Is the Digital Revolution Really Independent of the Industrial Revolution?

You know, we often hear about the digital revolution as this completely new frontier, a total quantum leap in how we live and earn income . But here's the thing: it's actually deeply dependent upon the industrial revolution . Think about it—if our core energy systems, like oil and electricity, break down, then nothing in the digital space can even function . It's like trying to run a supercomputer without power; it just doesn't compute, literally!

This leads us to a fascinating, yet unsettling, prediction: we might see a lot of de-industrialization around the world in the next two decades . What does that mean, exactly? It means people might actually stop making things in the way we're used to . We're already seeing hints of this, tragically, in places like Ukraine, which relies on Russia for energy, and we're about to face a global shortage of Russian crude oil . This breakdown in global trade links could mean places that depend on international trade for basic building blocks—like oil, natural gas, copper, and iron ore—will face abject shortages . It's a pretty wild thought, isn't it? If countries like China can't get these materials, their modern industrialized lifestyles could crumble, leading to cities emptying out as people move to places where they can at least eat .

2. Can Technology Solve Our Biggest Global Challenges?

It's easy to get swept up in the excitement of new technologies, thinking they'll solve all our problems, right? But here's a dose of reality: their broad-based applicability is actually quite limited . I've found that while these advancements are meaningful in systems that maintain "coherence," the very building blocks allowing that coherence are being challenged . This could lead to an increase in inequality between countries, with some pulling off these technological feats and others simply unable to . For instance, when we talk about green tech like wind, solar, and electric vehicles, the material requirements are absolutely staggering—we're talking an order of magnitude more materials than conventional tech .

Consider this surprising fact: your average electric car needs about 130 pounds each of copper and nickel, vastly more than the few pounds in a conventional car . The global supply chains for these critical materials are also in some very "uncomfortable places," as the expert puts it . For example, 60% of the world's cobalt comes from one place, and the second largest source, Russia, is now offline . So, even though I have solar panels on my own house and believe in climate change data, I'm skeptical about these technologies as a universal fix . What about self-sovereign energy systems or even Bitcoin? While the idea of being disconnected from the grid and paying for everything in Bitcoin sounds appealing, especially with your own solar and battery system, it's not broadly viable for most of the world . Bitcoin, frankly, is called a "dumpster fire" because it's not a store of value or a reliable method of exchange, it's dependent on the normal financial system, and it's vulnerable to government actions . It seems our technological aspirations might be outrunning our material and geopolitical realities.

3. Is Global Connectivity a Myth in a Fractured World?

We've all seen how digital platforms like Zoom, Facebook, and other social media can create a sense of connection across vast distances, making us feel closer to events like what's happening in Hong Kong or Ukraine . It seems like these technologies could foster global unity, right? I used to fully believe that, but I've personally seen how various systems have manipulated the digital space, and it's made me lose a lot of confidence . This raises a crucial question: can global connectivity truly thrive when governments are actively controlling information?

Think about the "Twitter revolution" in Egypt. Initially, the military kept digital avenues open, leading to a regime change . But just two years later, they cut the two cables linking Egypt to the rest of the world, easily taking over the information space . The Russians even studied this method, implementing their own digital kill switches on the four cables in and out of Russia . Every "authoritative system" in the world has done something similar, dramatically shrinking the portion of the world where truly honest, direct, open, and globalized connections are possible . This means our ability to connect digitally often depends on governments feeling secure enough not to limit those connections . However, there's a glimmer of hope: technologies like starlink, a low earth orbit satellite constellation, can actually provide a way to evade these information control systems that didn't effectively exist before . It's a fascinating push-and-pull between control and resilience in our increasingly digital, yet fractured, world.