Are We Ready for the AGI Tsunami? What the Next 3 Years Will Look Like

Let’s talk about the future—the one that isn’t some distant sci-fi fantasy, but the one hitting us in the face right now. You know, we’ve all been mesmerized by tools like ChatGPT, which is incredible for generating information and content. Here’s the thing, though: the generative AI we see today, as fantastic as it is, is really just the appetizer, the soup and salad before the main course . We’re standing on the precipice of something much bigger, something that will fundamentally change not just our jobs, but the entire global economic structure, and it’s called Agentic AI. This next evolution of artificial intelligence is expected to be fully realized in the next two to four years, which means we need to start preparing immediately.

Is Generative AI Just the Appetizer?

When we think about what most businesses actually do, they aren't primarily focused on creating information; they focus on taking existing information and performing the right actions . If you tell ChatGPT to find you a flight, it will give you the information, but what you really want is a piece of software that can search through apps, click menu buttons, input your credit card details, and book the ticket for you, all autonomously . That’s the core difference: Agentic AI (or Agent AI) is designed to take actions on our behalf, moving beyond mere content creation into genuine automated execution . It's the difference between asking for directions and having a self-driving car take you there.

What’s interesting is that once Agentic AI is completed—and many experts believe this will happen very quickly, perhaps in just two or three years —it will enable the large-scale automation of intellectual activity in the non-manufacturing sector . Think about it: when AI can perform actions that previously required human intellectual capacity, we are talking about mass production of services and decision-making, not just goods . I’ve found that many people are so focused on the creative disruptions of current AI (like video generation through Sora 2 ) that they miss this crucial shift toward automated action and operational intelligence, which is where the real economic impact will land.

How Did ChatGPT Become the New Operating System?

Let's zoom out and look at the foundation of the modern internet. Back in 1969, the fundamental communication technology (TCP) was already complete, but for twenty years, the average person couldn't use the internet because there was no easy interface—you had to write code . It wasn't until the early 90s, when Tim Berners-Lee proposed the World Wide Web and Marc Andreessen created the Mosaic browser, that the internet finally gained a simple interface . We use the internet today by clicking a mouse or tapping a finger, actions that require no prior training whatsoever.

Now, fast forward to 2023. OpenAI made a couple of subtle but profoundly significant announcements: the ability to run apps within ChatGPT and the enabling of payment functionalities . Sam Altman explicitly stated that ChatGPT has become an operating system . Here’s the revolutionary part: before, we had 9 million apps (potential answers to human desires), but most of us only used three to five daily because we didn't know where the right app was . With ChatGPT as an OS, the user only has to express their desired outcome—"Do this and that for me"—and the AI automatically finds the necessary information and apps to solve the problem . This transforms the internet from a search-based philosophy (which underpins most existing businesses) into a conversation-based paradigm, ending the age of search as we know it . This conversational interface, which allows humans to communicate with machines using natural language instead of a mouse, is an interface revolution.

Why Will Humanoid Robots be Bigger Than the Auto Industry?

The next stage, following the Agentic AI which operates in the digital realm, is Physical AI—robots that can take action in the analog world . Our desires aren't confined to the screen; you can’t use an app to bring you the water bottle sitting on your desk . This realization means that humanoids are the inevitable next step in fulfilling human demands, and frankly, the progress in humanoid development has been dazzling.

Experts believe the humanoid market will eventually surpass the size of the global automobile market . This is a crucial point for nations dependent on manufacturing, like South Korea, which absolutely must not miss this trend . However, a counterintuitive fact emerges here: China is currently dominating this space, with 70 to 80 percent of the parts in many teardown analyses of humanoids coming from Chinese suppliers . Many other nations, including Korea, still rely on parts from the US, Germany, or Japan for core components . Given China's massive market size and price competitiveness, the urgent question for many countries is how to compete and surpass them in the Physical AI domain, as this is poised to be the largest manufacturing business of the AI era.

Is a Post-Labor Utopia Really Possible?

Silicon Valley voices are quite utopian about AGI’s arrival, often suggesting that once AGI and humanoids appear, Earth will become a paradise . The core argument is that AI can solve scientific problems that humans couldn't due to our limitations, such as achieving nuclear fusion—a goal that DeepMind’s Demis Hassabis argues would essentially solve energy scarcity, eliminating the root cause of most social, economic, and political problems . They even claim AGI will cure most human diseases, including the ultimate disease: death.

The idea is simple: robots handle physical labor, AGI handles intellectual labor, and humans just... exist in abundance, potentially living like billionaires, according to some AGI proponents . However, I have my doubts about this "Wall-E" future where humans do nothing . This leads us to the surprising economic transformation AGI will bring: a shift in the value of labor versus capital.

How Will AGI Redefine Labor and Capital?

Historically, GDP growth was incredibly slow; from 1000 BC until the 18th century, growth was negligible . The Industrial Revolution, which automated physical labor through machines like the steam engine, caused growth to jump to 0.5 percent . Now, Silicon Valley predicts AGI will push annual GDP growth to over 20 percent . Why? Because AGI automates intelligence, and since intellectual work is a form of labor, labor itself becomes something that can be mass-produced.

Here’s the counterintuitive consequence: When something is mass-produced, its unit cost drops . Therefore, as we move closer to AGI, the value of labor will inevitably plummet . Conversely, the capital required to build and control AGI is immense, meaning the value of capital will skyrocket . Sam Altman calls AGI a new form of capitalism, suggesting that AGI grants market power—the ability to raise prices beyond marginal cost . The logical, albeit grim, conclusion for us is that those of us who live by our labor must accumulate capital relentlessly over the next decade, because once AGI hits, unemployment could surge to 30 or 40 percent . While some believe that a single "Hyper CEO" utilizing AGI could sustain an entire nation, much like the great industrialists of the past supported cities (like Andrew Carnegie and Pittsburgh, or Chung Ju-yung and Ulsan ), the critical competition in the AGI era won't be human versus machine; it will be between humans who know how to utilize AI most effectively.